From suggesting to build a wall between the US and Mexico, to sending top classified information through insecure emails, naming their fire arms and proposing to ban Muslims from entering the US, the presidential candidates from both the Democrats and the Republicans have done some (to put it nicely) unusual things. Yet, particularly in the Republican camp, the more absurd your ideas are the higher in the polls you seem to be.
Donald Trump is the perfect example of this, with the Huffington Post saying that in the current national polls he will get 37.8% of the overall Republican vote. This is backed up by 16/17 of the February polls saying Trump is the most likely to be the Republican nominee. His closest rival is Ted Cruz who is pro-guns, wants to dismantle ‘Obamacare’ (health care) and often picks fights with his own party. Compared to those two Jeb Bush’s photo of his own gun with the caption “America”, seems quite normal (that is probably why he has just pulled out, his ideas weren’t mad enough to push him higher in the polls).
I lived in Orange County, California for six-and-a-half years. It is one of the few Republican counties in a mostly Democratic state and on a recent trip I was talking about the presidential campaign rollercoaster with our old friends. Dereck Roselli, a life long Republican, said,” If Donald Trump is our presidential nominee then I would consider voting Democrat.” Devon Dwyer, a Republican who stood for mayor of the town I lived in said,” It’s mad, the whole things a mess.” He supported Marco Rubio who is the only candidate to buck the trend of the madder your ideas the more likely you are to be elected.
If Americans say they don’t support Trump and that more moderate candidates like Rubio are the right choice then why does the latest FOX poll say Trump will get 36% of the Republican vote and Rubio 15%? Why also does Elon University polls say people in North Carolina are more likely to elect Bernie Sanders than Ted Cruz?
Social changes in terms of immigration and sexuality have caused rises in extreme candidates like Donald Trump from Americans who are unsettled. America is also in debt by trillions of dollars and the global economy with China’s recent slowdown is shaky. Americans recognise Donald Trump as a successful businessman and they trust that he can help solve their economic problems. Quite how building a wall along the Mexican border will save America money I don’t know but Trump’s answer to that problem is that the Mexicans will pay for it. However unlikely that plan seems it is overshadowed by his plans to ban all Muslims from entering the United States. How would that work? Either way his slogan, “Make America Great Again” certainly appeals to the two thirds of Americans who think their country is on “the wrong track”.
Only time will tell whether Trump’s popularity continues but we can be sure that if he does get elected then world politics would see quite a change, as would international relations.
The normally blockbuster American presidential campaign trail has changed from a thriller ride with many twists and turns to what some would call an award winning comedy slash horror show. Hopefully it will have a happier ending than many fear.