It is Saturday 19th March, George Osborne has announced his 2016 Budget statement and Work and Pensions Minister Iain Duncan Smith resigns over the new cuts and proposals.
For David Cameron, the Conservative party and the nation, this is a colossal shock. Mr Smith’s resignation is one of the biggest walkouts since the Thatcher era of the 1980s, but how did this all come into hand? Why did the former Conservative party leader leave the front benches?
Let us look at the state and health of the British economy first. The deficit as a share of GDP is projected to fall to 2.9% in 2016-17, 1.9% in 2017-18 and 1% in 2018-19. Further cuts of £3.5 billion are to be set by 2020, with spending as a share of GDP set to fall to 36.9%. Even corporation tax is set to go down by 3%. Economic growth however is set to go down and inflation to go up drastically. This is a concern for George Osborne and David Cameron, who promised to cut the deficit by the next general election. So have they been combating this issue in the most recent statement?
George Osborne wants to put more money into the public sector. He's offering schools money to help pay for additional classes or extra-curricular activities like art and sport. Chef Jamie Oliver’s wish of having sugary drinks taxed and revenue siphoned into health initiatives is to be introduced. Both these policies and others has divided opinion in the media and politicians. However, the the biggest story in his red briefcase is on his cuts to disability allowances.
Mr Osborne had said the government would be spending an extra £1bn on disability but changes to benefits announced a few days earlier had suggested the government would save £4.4bn in 4 years. These include changes to Personal Independence Payments, which will replace Disability Living Allowance in January 2017, that were expected to save £1.3bn and sparked outcry from opposition parties and some Tory MPs. In this case, Iain Duncan Smith jumped shop, saying the latest cuts were a "compromise too far”, and appeared on the Andrew Maar show on Sunday morning to spark his anger furthermore.
This has sparked real doubts among Tory MPs and peers over the decisions made by the Chancellor and his credibility. His constant reshuffling of his economic plans has sparked questions also on his leadership in the cabinet. The Prime Minister David Cameron replied to Mr Smith’s letter saying that he was “puzzled and disappointed,” by the cabinet minister’s decision to resign, stating that the disability benefit cuts had been “collectively agreed” between Duncan Smith, No. 10 and the Treasury before being announced a week ago.
However, what will the events of the last few days mean for everyone? The public may question the Conservative's accountability. Iain Duncan Smith’s departure has ignited a movement within the party and putting further pressure on the government. It appears that George Osborne has suffered the most damage with his policy being rejected by his Right Honourable Friend and pressure being mounted by revolting MPs and Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn, who say that Mr Osborne is a failure and that he should resign immediately.
Although in all of this political fiasco, David Cameron is the most damaged. It questions his appointment of ministers, his agreement and his judgment because he is the most powerful figure in parliament and he must take the most responsibility for this. It gets worse, Iain Duncan Smith was part of the seven cabinet euro-sceptics wanting to leave the European Union in June. The party as a whole is divided over the issue, so an event like this is almost strengthening Iain Duncan Smith and weakening the PM in his hopes to remain in the European Union.
It is a difficult time, one which is equally exiting to watch as it is painful to politicians. The House the other day approved the budget, yet you can still feel an air of doubt lurking around the chambers of Westminster.